Rate Lock Advisory

Wednesday, December 17th

Wednesday’s bond market has opened in negative territory, erasing part of yesterday’s afternoon gains. Stocks are mixed with the Dow up 166 points and the Nasdaq down 70 points. The bond market is currently down 3/32 (4.15%), but strength late yesterday should allow this morning’s mortgage rates to be approximately .125 of a discount lower than Tuesday’s early pricing. If you saw an intraday improvement late Tuesday, you may see a modest increase this morning, depending on the size of the intraday revision.

3/32

Bonds

30 yr - 4.15%

166

Dow

48,281

70

NASDAQ

23,041

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Low

Unknown

Fed Talk

There is no relevant economic data set for release this morning. If we see an intraday move in rates during early morning or midday trading, it likely will be due to something said during one of today’s Fed-member speaking engagements. There are a few scheduled throughout the day, but none are expected to yield a major surprise that would cause a noticeable reaction in the markets.

Medium

Unknown

Treasury Auctions (5,7,10,20,30 year)

We do have an afternoon event that may affect mortgage rates. Results of today’s 20-year Treasury Bond auction will be announced at 1:00 PM ET. If they show a strong demand from investors, we could see bond gains and possibly a slight improvement to mortgage rates before the end of the day. However, a weak interest would indicate a waning appetite for longer-term debt. The latter is bad news because mortgage rates are based on long-term securities.

High

Unknown

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Tomorrow brings us two economic reports, both at 8:30 AM ET. One is much more important than the other since it tracks inflation at the consumer level of the economy. November’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to show a 0.3% increase in both the monthly overall and core readings. The core data is considered more important because it excludes more volatile food and energy costs, leaving a more reliable dataset. November’s year-over-year readings are predicted to be at 3.1% and 3.0% respectively. Good news for bonds and mortgage rates will be weaker numbers that show inflation is softer than many had thought. Slowing inflation makes long-term debt more attractive to investors.

Medium

Unknown

Weekly Unemployment Claims (every Thursday)

Also early tomorrow will be the release of last week’s unemployment figures. They are expected to show 225,000 new claims for jobless benefits were filed, down from the previous week’s 236,000 initial filings that surprised many in the markets when it was announced last week. Rising claims are a sign of weakness in the employment sector, so good news for rates would be an increase in new claims instead of a decline.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

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